Probabilistic Discrete Event Systems Modeling of Nonlinear Transitions between Electronic and Combustible Cigarette Smoking with the 2014 National Youth Tobacco Survey Data

Introduction:
This text provides an analysis of the dynamics of transitions between electronic (e-) and combustible (c-) cigarette smoking among US middle and high school students. It uses a probabilistic discrete event systems (PDES) model to investigate the nonlinear transitions between e-and c-cigarette smoking with the 2014 National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) data. The study aims to advance understanding of students' behavior in using the two most commonly smoked tobacco products and to provide evidence to strengthen current tobacco control strategies.

Key Points:

* The study uses a PDES model to characterize the nonlinear dynamics of mutual transitions between e-and c-cigarette smoking among US students in grades 6-12.
* The model is based on Markov chains and estimates 21 transitional probabilities between five smoking stages, including never-smokers, combustible cigarette smokers, electronic cigarette smokers, dual smokers, and quitter/ex-smokers.
* The estimated transitional probabilities suggest that e-cigarettes are more attractive to youth than c-cigarettes, but the behavior of smoking c-cigarettes is more stable than that of smoking e-cigarettes.
* Female students were more likely to remain as quitters or ex-smokers, while male students were more likely to relapse and smoke again.
* The study found that each year, 7-8% of middle school students and 11% of high school students initiated smoking, suggesting potential increases in both e-and c-cigarette smoking among US middle and high school students if no further measures are taken.
* The PDES-based approach is effective in investigating the nonlinear dynamics of mutual transitions of two risk behaviors in adolescents with one wave cross-sectional data.

Main Message:
The study highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear dynamics of mutual transitions between e-and c-cigarette smoking among US youth. The findings indicate that e-cigarettes are more attractive to youth than c-cigarettes, and the behavior of smoking c-cigarettes is more stable than that of smoking e-cigarettes. The study also suggests that female students were more likely to remain as quitters or ex-smokers, while male students were more likely to relapse and smoke again. The study's findings have significant implications for tobacco control strategies and highlight the need for further research to understand the long-term effects of e-cigarette use on c-cigarette smoking.

Chen, Xinguang, Bin Yu, and Ding-Geng Chen. “Probabilistic Discrete Event Systems Modeling of Nonlinear Transitions between Electronic and Combustible Cigarette Smoking with the 2014 National Youth Tobacco Survey Data.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 22, no. 3 (2018): 289–312.