Summary
Introduction:
This text discusses a study that aimed to determine whether online vaping-related search data from Google Trends correlates with adolescent e-cigarette use prevalence in the US. The study found high and statistically significant correlation between NYTS prevalence estimates and interest in the search terms `vapes', `vape', and `vape pen'. The findings suggest that monitoring online interest in vaping may prove to be a cost-free and reliable means of generating more frequent prevalence estimates than large national surveys.
Key Points:
* The study found high and statistically significant correlation between NYTS prevalence estimates and interest in the search terms `vapes', `vape', and `vape pen'.
* The correlations were strongest with 1-2 month lags, suggesting changes in vaping-related search trends are shortly followed by changes in adolescent e-cigarette use trends.
* Using the search trend data to predict high school current e-cigarette use prevalence provided a prevalence estimate for November 2020 of 11.3-16.5%, which is lower than the 19.6% estimated by NYTS for January-March 2020.
* The findings suggest that recent adolescent e-cigarette use prevention efforts such as Tobacco 21 and pandemic-mitigation efforts have had some impact on reducing adolescent e-cigarette use.
* The study's strengths include the novel application of temporal online search data to predict trends in e-cigarette use prevalence among US adolescents and rigorous statistical analysis.
* The primary limitation of the study is that the mechanism that associates vaping search interest with e-cigarette use prevalence is complex, and an increase in search popularity does not necessarily mean an increase in use prevalence.
* Google Trends does not provide age-filtering of web searchers, therefore adolescent vaping-related search trends are confounded by other age groups making the same searches.
Main Message:
The study highlights the potential of using online search trend data as a cost-free and reliable means of generating more frequent prevalence estimates of adolescent e-cigarette use. The findings suggest that monitoring online interest in vaping can provide insights into changes in adolescent e-cigarette use trends, and can help inform and evaluate the impact of adolescent e-cigarette use prevention efforts. However, the limitations of the study also indicate the need for cautious interpretation of the findings and further research to establish the causal relationship between vaping search interest and e-cigarette use prevalence.
Citation
Foxon F. Estimating E-Cigarette Use Prevalence among US Adolescents UsingVaping-Related Online Search Trends. Substance use & misuse. 2021;56(10):1559-1563. doi:10.1080/10826084.2021.1936054
