Trajectories and determinants of adolescents’ nicotine product use risk among U.S. adolescents in a nationally representative sample of longitudinal cohort.

Introduction:
This text provides an analysis of a study examining the trajectories and determinants of nicotine product use risk among US adolescents. The study used data from the Population assessment of Tobacco and health (PaTh) Study and employed group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct groups of adolescents following similar patterns of nicotine product use over time. The study also examined a range of potential predictors of group membership, including sociodemographic characteristics, substance use, self-perceived physical and mental health, environmental factors, and digital media use.

Key Points:

* The study identified five distinct trajectory groups of nicotine product use risk among US adolescents.
* The five groups included nonusers, stable low to moderate risk of developing poly use, gradual increase in risk of poly use, rapid linear increase in risk of poly use until Wave 3 and then plateauing for cigarettes or slightly diminishing for e-cigarettes and other tobacco products at Wave 4, and stable moderate to high risk of poly use with the highest prevalence of cigarette smoking.
* Being older, male, living in a modified family structure, and being exposed to secondhand smoke at home were significant predictors of membership in the four nicotine using groups compared to the nonusers group.
* Past 30-day alcohol use, past 30-day marijuana use, and past 30-day other substance use were significant predictors of group membership for each group compared to the nonusers group.
* adolescents with parental education of bachelor's degree or higher were less likely to belong to the stable low to moderate risk of developing poly use, rapid linear increase in risk of poly use until Wave 3 and then plateauing for cigarettes or slightly diminishing for e-cigarettes and other tobacco products at Wave 4, and stable moderate to high risk of poly use with the highest prevalence of cigarette smoking groups compared to the nonusers group.
* Non-hispanic non-white adolescents were less likely to belong to the stable low to moderate risk of developing poly use and stable moderate to high risk of poly use with the highest prevalence of cigarette smoking groups compared to the nonusers group.
* hispanic ethnicity was protective against stable moderate to high risk of poly use with the highest prevalence of cigarette smoking group membership.
* Excellent or very good physical health status at Wave 2 was protective against stable low to moderate risk of developing poly use and stable moderate to high risk of poly use with the highest prevalence of cigarette smoking group membership.
* Excellent or very good mental health status at Wave 2 was protective against gradual increase in risk of poly use and rapid linear increase in risk of poly use until Wave 3 and then plateauing for cigarettes or slightly diminishing for e-cigarettes and other tobacco products at Wave 4 group membership.
* Daily SNS use prior to onset or at the early stage of nicotine product use was associated with later nicotine product use, while established nicotine product use was associated with less frequent SNS use.

Main Message:
The study highlights the importance of identifying distinct groups of adolescents following similar patterns of nicotine product use over time and examining potential predictors of group membership. The findings suggest that a range of sociodemographic factors, substance use, and health status are associated with nicotine product use risk among US adolescents. The results can inform preventive efforts and help target resources to high-risk groups.

Kwon E, adams Z, Seo DC. Trajectories and determinants of adolescents’ nicotine product use risk among U.S. adolescents in a nationally representative sample of longitudinal cohort. addictive behaviors. 2021;116:106812. doi:10.1016/j.addbeh.2020.106812