a modeling approach to gauging the effects of nicotine vaping product use on cessation from cigarettes: What do we know, what do we need to know?

Introduction:
This text is a summary of a study that aimed to develop a cohort-specific simulation model of the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) on smoking cessation by adult smokers and the resulting premature deaths and life-years lost. The study considered two birth cohorts, age 30 and age 50 in 2012, and conducted extensive sensitivity analyses.

Key Points:

* The study used data from the 1965-2012 National health Interview Surveys and the 2014/5 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey.
* The model incorporated a range of plausible assumptions from published literature about transition rates from regular smoking to exclusive NVP and dual use, from dual use to exclusive NVP use and from exclusive NVP use to no use.
* The model projected that compared with the No-NVP scenario, the male (female) model projected 17.8% (19.3%) fewer premature deaths and 22.9% (26.6%) fewer life-years lost for the 1982 cohort and 5.4% (7.3%) fewer premature deaths and 7.9% (11.4%) fewer life-years lost for the 1962 cohort.
* These gains were sensitive to NVP use over time, age of initial NVP use, transitions from smoking to dual, exclusive NVP and no use, and relative NVP mortality risks.
* The study was focused on cohort-specific variations in use, but transitions to dual use, exclusive vaping and no use may also vary over time for each cohort.
* The model did not specifically consider transitions from smoking to vaping and back to smoking, or the use of other tobacco products.
* The study found that NVP use in the US is projected to have a net positive impact on population health over a wide range of plausible levels of NVP use, transitions to dual, exclusive NVP and no use, and NVP risks. however, the net impact is sensitive to parameter estimates.

Main Message:
The study suggests that NVP use has the potential to have a net positive impact on population health by reducing premature deaths and life-years lost due to smoking. however, the benefits are sensitive to the level of NVP use, transitions to dual use and no use, and relative NVP mortality risks. Further research is needed to better understand the long-term impact of NVP use on smoking cessation and population health.

Levy DT, Yuan Z, Li Y, alberg aJ, Cummings KM. a modeling approach to gauging the effects of nicotine vaping product use on cessation from cigarettes: What do we know, what do we need to know? addiction. 2019;114(Suppl 1):86-96. doi:10.1111/add.14530