England SimSmoke: the impact of nicotine vaping on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in England.

Introduction:
This article presents a study that examines the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in England. The study uses an indirect simulation model called England SimSmoke, which was validated using data from 2000 to 2012, before NVP use became more widespread. The model predicts the decline in smoking prevalence and compares it to a No-NVP scenario to estimate the impact of NVPs on smoking and smoking-attributable deaths.

Key Points:

* The England SimSmoke model was validated using data from 2000 to 2012, and the projections were consistent with three national surveys.
* The study compared the relative reduction in smoking prevalence from 2012 to 2019 between the SimSmoke model and three national surveys.
* The implied NVP-attributable reduction in adult smoking prevalence was about 20.2% for males and 20.4% for females using the aPS, the largest survey.
* The results indicate that NVPs played an important role in reducing smoking prevalence in England in 2012-2019.
* The study did not distinguish the role of NVP-oriented policies from cigarette-oriented policies, but the impact of NVPs may have been greater due to the strong cigarette-oriented policies working in tandem with relatively extensive, but proportionate NVP policies.
* Further research is needed to develop a better understanding of the impact of NVPs, particularly as new models that incorporate NVP transitions are developed.

Main Message:
The study suggests that NVPs have had a significant impact on reducing smoking prevalence in England from 2012 to 2019. however, the study did not distinguish the role of NVP-oriented policies from cigarette-oriented policies. Therefore, further research is needed to understand the impact of NVPs better, particularly as new models that incorporate NVP transitions are developed. Overall, the findings provide valuable insights into the potential benefits of NVPs in reducing smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in England.

Levy DT, Sánchez-Romero LM, Li Y, et al. England SimSmoke: the impact of nicotine vaping on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in England. addiction (abingdon, England). 2021;116(5):1196-1211. doi:10.1111/add.15269