The Potential Impact of E-cigarettes on the Life-Years Lost from Conventional Smoking in the Russian Federation.

Introduction:
This text provides an analysis of the potential impact of e-cigarettes on the death toll of cigarette smoking in the Russian Federation. The study uses a dynamic population simulation model tailored to tobacco control policy analysis and considers various assumptions about how vaping might affect smoking cessation, initiation, and health risks. The model simulates the proportion of smoking-related deaths that could be reduced with e-cigarette use over an 80-year period.

Key Points:

* The study constructed a dynamic population simulation model for the Russian Federation to estimate the impact of e-cigarettes on the toll of smoking.
* The model assumes that smoking-related deaths do not occur before the age of 35, and sex- and age-specific death rates are estimated for never smokers, current smokers, and former smokers.
* a retrospective analysis was conducted to check the predictive power of the model, which showed that the model's projections were close to the actual indicators calculated based on RLMS data.
* The study considered various assumptions about how vaping might affect smoking cessation, initiation, and health risks.
* Each combination of these assumptions creates a single e-cigarette scenario, with 210 scenarios in total.
* The annual difference in population size between each e-cigarette scenario and the status quo provides the estimated life-years saved or lost due to vaping.
* Cumulative life-years saved or lost for the full 80 years are calculated by adding these annual estimates.

Main Message:
The study suggests that vaping has great potential to reduce the prevalence of smoking and the related death toll in the Russian Federation. The simulation analysis produced positive results in 88.1% of e-cigarette scenarios, with a range of life-years saved from -3.3 million to 38.5 million. however, the study also notes that most of the model scenarios involve a significant number of individuals who stopped smoking in favor of vaping, which may have adverse health impacts on former smokers who quit smoking using e-cigarettes. Therefore, it is essential to consider the potential risks and benefits of vaping and develop appropriate regulatory measures to maximize its public health potential.

Mzhavanadze G, Yanin D. The Potential Impact of E-cigarettes on the Life-Years Lost from Conventional Smoking in the Russian Federation. Journal of consumer policy. 2023;46(2):253-274. doi:10.1007/s10603-023-09540-z