Summary
Introduction:
This text is a summary of a retracted research article examining the relationship between smoking prevalence and e-cigarette use among US adults using population-level counterfactual trend modelling. The study aimed to assess whether and how much smoking prevalence differs from expectations since the introduction of e-cigarettes. The article includes a background on e-cigarette use and its potential effects on smoking prevalence, a description of the sample and methodology used, and a presentation of the results and their implications.
Key Points:
* The study used annual estimates of smoking and e-cigarette use in US adults from the National Health Interview Survey.
* Regression models were fitted to smoking prevalence trends before e-cigarettes became widely available and were used to project counterfactual trends.
* Smoking prevalence discrepancies were calculated as the difference between projected and actual smoking prevalence from 2010 to 2019.
* The correlation between smoking discrepancies and e-cigarette use prevalence was investigated.
* The study found that actual overall smoking prevalence from 2010 to 2019 was significantly lower than counterfactual predictions, and this discrepancy was significantly larger as e-cigarette use prevalence increased.
* Subgroup analyses showed that discrepancies in smoking prevalence were more pronounced for cohorts with greater e-cigarette use prevalence, namely adults ages 18-34, adult males, and non-Hispanic White adults.
* The study concluded that population-level data suggest that smoking prevalence has dropped faster than expected, in ways correlated with increased e-cigarette use, and that this population movement has potential public health implications.
Main Message:
The main message of this retracted research article is that smoking prevalence among US adults has dropped faster than expected since the introduction of e-cigarettes, and this decrease is correlated with increased e-cigarette use. The study's findings suggest that e-cigarettes may have contributed to the decline in smoking prevalence, particularly among certain cohorts with higher e-cigarette use prevalence. However, the article has been retracted, and the validity of its findings is questionable. Therefore, further research is needed to confirm these results and their implications for public health.
Citation
Foxon F, Selya A, Gitchell J, Shiffman S. Population-level counterfactual trend modelling to examine the relationship between smoking prevalence and e-cigarette use among US adults. BMC public health. 2022;22(1):1940. doi:10.1186/s12889-022-14341-z
